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Thriving US makes Dollar General a tougher sell
  + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. economy’s gain is shaping up to be Dollar General’s (DG.N) loss. Dollar General sales grew a record 16.3% when Covid-19 slammed the U.S. in 2020, but rose only 2.5% when the economy reopened in 2021. During the recession years of 2008 and 2009, sales grew 9% and 9.5%, respectively. Dollar General now reckons earnings in the year to January 2024 could fall as much as 34%, compared to a previous estimate of a drop of up to 8%. Dollar General’s valuation is still far from discounted.
Persons: Jeff Owen, Ben Winck, Pernod Ricard, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Atlanta Federal, X, Microsoft, Thomson
Most US executives don't expect a return to pre-pandemic office life, a study has found. Instead, they expect the number of hybrid and remote workers to increase. The study also found execs expected the number of fully in-person workers to continue to decrease. Despite the rise in return-to-office mandates, one study has found that most US executives expect remote and hybrid work to continue to grow. Instead, execs predicted the number of hybrid workers in their firm would increase by 2.2% over the next five years and the number of fully remote workers to increase by 1%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, It's, execs Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Tech, Meta, Google, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, University of Chicago Locations: Wall, Silicon, Stanford
It's time to start loading up on U.S. stocks and other risk assets, HSBC said. Investors are heading into September after what has been a weak month for equities. However, HSBC analyst Max Kettner said he does not expect any "similar broad-based sell-offs" going forward even if yields remain elevated. "So we think this presents a pretty good tactical entry point into risk assets, above all into US equities." While many economists are leaving behind U.S. recession forecasts, they still expect further weakness in Europe.
Persons: Max Kettner, Kettner, CNBC's, Michael Bloom Organizations: HSBC, Investors, Nasdaq, Atlanta Federal Locations: U.S, Europe
New York CNN —To hear Republican presidential candidates describe the US economy, you’d think it was in a deep recession, with growth and productivity choked off by President Joe Biden’s policies. The economy is strong, but most Americans say they don’t feel good about it, according to polls. HousingAnother reason voters are down on the economy: Housing affordability is at its lowest point in decades. In fact, economic growth is booming thanks to the strong labor market and resilient consumer spending. We won’t have a complete read on third-quarter economic growth until late October, but already, forecasts for GDP “are running wild on the upside,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds.
Persons: New York CNN —, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Republicans can’t, what’s, — it’s, Jerome Powell, Trump, , It’s, deride “, , Chris Rupkey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, GOP, CNN, Federal, Inflation Fox News, Wisconsin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Trump, Biden, Corporations, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Ukraine, America, United States
Moody's says that consumer savings rates are rising after bottoming out in June 2022. "We still see it as a normalization, not a deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit.'' But consumer loan delinquency rates are at 2019 levels, and below any level ever seen before 2014, according to Federal Reserve data. At JPMorgan, mortgage credit quality is so solid that the bank reported no net chargeoffs in the second quarter. Overall, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says consumer spending on new vehicles rose $40 billion to $642.4 billion in the first half of the year, with most gains coming in the second quarter.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Arun Sundaram, haven't, Alastair Borthwick, Moody's, Scott Hoyt, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Barnum, David Fieldhouse, Hoyt, Sundaram, Horton, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Chevrolet, Knapp, Getty, Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Bank of America, CFRA, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Federal, Wall, General Motors, GM, Ford, U.S, Toll, Pride Locations: Houston , Texas
That’s important, because Americans’ spending on goods and services accounts for two-thirds of US gross domestic product. Historically, sluggish retail sales, credit card delinquency and even shoplifting have been signs of a dark cloud on the horizon. The question of credit card debt is another area where the nuance matters. And as a share of total credit card debt, it is relatively low. But Americans’ credit card debt is unquestionably rising.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Macy’s, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Barbie, , Ubers, Covid, Taylor, Sarah Yenesel, Chris Rupkey, Leticia Miranda, That’s, TJ Maxx, Louis Navellier, they’re, Brett Ryan, , Alicia Wallace, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Nike, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve, , “ Retailers, Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Amazon, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: New York
The U.S. economy could bring down inflation while avoiding a growth slowdown — thanks to a rise in productivity, according to Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School of Business. "The last quarter was, outside of the few months around the pandemic, the best quarter for productivity in over six years," Siegel told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that nonfarm business sector labor productivity rose 3.7% during the prior quarter, as output gained 2.4% and hours worked fell 1.3%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tracker of incoming data is suggesting growth of 5.8% in the period of July through September. "That's how you can have strong GDP growth without pressure on the labor market, and really without pressure on inflation.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, CNBC's, Jay Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: Wharton School of Business, U.S . Department of Labor, Atlanta Federal Locations: U.S
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.6% to just a whisker above a nine-month low hit the previous day. That brought the total loss for the week to 3.4% and marked the third straight week of declines for the index. Shares of Chinese property developers (.HSMPI) listed in Hong Kong fell 1.2%, after China Evergrande (3333.HK) filed for protection from creditors in a U.S. bankruptcy court. "At the start of the year China's economy was powering ahead. Brent crude futures dipped 0.2% to $83.94 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures was flat at $80.36.
Persons: Yuan, HSI, China Evergrande, Jonas Goltermann, Goltermann, Padhraic Garvey, Sam Holmes, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: SYDNEY, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Bank of, Technology, HK, Capital Economics, ING, Atlanta Federal, U.S ., U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, Hong Kong, China, U.S, Beijing, Americas
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) were up 0.1% after hitting a nine-month low the session before. It was, however, headed for a weekly loss of 2.8%, the third straight week of declines. Data early on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in July, a result that is likely to support market wagers that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to phase out monetary easing anytime soon. Chinese property giants gained 0.3%, pulling away from a nine-month low hit just a session ago. "At the start of the year China's economy was powering ahead.
Persons: HSI, China Evergrande, Jonas Goltermann, Treasuries, Padhraic Garvey, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of, HK, Capital Economics, ING, Atlanta Federal, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, China's, China, U.S, Americas
Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru
Accelerating US economy sideswipes markets
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. That compares with the official estimates of second-quarter GDP growth at an annualised 2.4% - itself a significant upside surprise - and Wall St forecasters are re-drawing forecasts again. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday, for example, more than doubled its third quarter real GDP call to 3.1%. The implications of such resilience in U.S. activity in the face of more than five percentage points of interest rate rises in 18 months has forced many to rethink the sustainable interest rate level over the horizon and increase long-term projections. After another heavy loss on Wall St indices (.SPX), (.IXIC) on Wednesday, futures regained some ground ahead of the bell today.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jackson, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Atlanta Federal, Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Applied, Ross Stores, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, Housing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Asia, Europe
Usually around 1.75 percentage points, and as low as 1.3 in 2021, the so-called mortgage spread is hovering at more than 3 percentage points now. And that is propping up mortgage rates, keeping home owners from selling their homes and buying nicer ones, and hurting first-time buyers, Yun said. Why mortgage spreads should move lowerLogically, mortgage spreads should move down sharply from here, thanks to the recent spate of good economic news, and bring relief to home buyers who have seen affordability deteriorate sharply since 2020. But as the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, mortgage rates rose even faster than bond yields. Mortgage rates also dropped, to 6.89% last Friday from a recent peak of 7.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, Logan Mohtashami, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Rob Haworth, Banks, refinance, Haworth, Neel Kashkari Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Mortgage News, HousingWire, Treasury, U.S . Bank, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Stockton , California, treasuries, Silicon, U.S, Irvine , Calif, Seattle
DUBLIN, June 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will have to increase rates if prices growth moves away from target or inflation expectations start to move in "a difficult way", Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said, while adding that neither was happening right now. Earlier this month, the Fed refrained from boosting its federal funds target rate for the first time since it started raising rates in March 2022, leaving it at between 5% and 5.25%. Bostic said there are undoubtedly scenarios where that could happen, but they are unlikley. The U.S unemployment rate has crept up to 3.7% but is lower than the 4% rate Fed policymakers estimate is consistent with a fully employed American workforce. Reporting by Padraic Halpin Editing by Mark Potter and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, Bostic, we'll, Powell, Padraic Halpin, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: DUBLIN, Federal, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Irish Association of Investment, Thomson Locations: Atlanta
Dollar index hits two-week high after data; yen remains soft
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustraiton in Warsaw, Poland on Sept. 21, 2022. The U.S. dollar index climbed to a two-week high on Thursday after economic data showed the labor market remained on a solid footing, giving the Federal Reserve a possible cushion to continue raising interest rates. He said he did not see inflation coming down to the Fed's 2% target until at least 2025. The dollar index was up 0.204% at 103.150 after earlier climbing to 103.44, its highest level since June 13. The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen for a third straight day, hitting a fresh 7-1/2 month high of 144.90, as U.S. and Japanese central bank policy plans are expected to remain at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Huw Roberts, Roberts, CME's Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Commerce Department, European Central Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Fed Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Bank, Europe, Spain, Italy, Swedish
SummarySummary Companies Goods trade deficit decreases 6.1% to $91.1 billion in MayWholesale inventories dip 0.1%; retail stocks rise 0.8%WASHINGTON, June 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in May as imports fell, but the improvement was probably insufficient to prevent trade from being a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The goods trade deficit decreased 6.1% to $91.1 billion last month, leaving the bulk of April's surge intact. The drop was led by a 7.3% plunge in consumer goods imports. The report also showed that retail inventories increased 0.8% last month after gaining 0.3% in April. Excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories were unchanged after decreasing 0.3% in April.
Persons: nonfarm, Omodunbi, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Goods, Commerce Department, PNC Financial, Trade, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania
Morning Bid: World markets calm after Russia drama
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows - but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%. U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Turkey's lira slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders' holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.
Persons: Mike Dolan, uneasily, Vladimir Putin, Leonardo, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, Saab, Rheinmetall, Brent, . U.S, Treasury, Bank for International Settlements, HSBC, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Central Banking, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Shanghai, Europe, United States, ., Canary Wharf, London, Sintra, Portugal
Morning Bid: Business brakes in June swoon, dollar jumps
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanJust as world stock prices raced ahead this month, broader business activity appeared to be stalling again. Equivalent Japanese and British surveys also showed sub-forecast growth and markets nervously await the U.S. version later on Friday. The dollar was the big market mover - surging into the weekend against Asia and European currencies. Inflation is falling faster, real wage growth is back positive, the jobs market is loosening slightly and housing is rebounding somewhat. So even as stock prices have come off the year's highs, the VIX (.VIX) implied volatility gauge continues to fall away - closing below 13 on Thursday for the first time since January 2020.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Wall, Powell's, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Jane Merriman Organizations: Asia, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Brent, Japan's, Swiss, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Asia, United States
SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Asian shares made a tentative start to Thursday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stuck to his recent hawkish tone as investors assess the future rate policy path from the Fed. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday the Fed should not raise rates further or it would risk "needlessly" sapping the strength of the U.S. economy. The comments highlight the growing debate at the central bank over when and if the central bank should hike further. "The BoE's conditional guidance put the burden of proof on the data showing more persistent inflation pressures to continue hiking bank rate. Markets will also be awaiting policy decision from Turkey's central bank, with a policy pivot and a sharp rate increase widely expected.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Australia's, Powell, Kevin Cummins, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Taylor Nugent, Sterling, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Washington, Atlanta, U.S, Turkey's
While noting that inflation remains very far from the Fed's target, Powell said it may make sense to move rates higher, at a more moderate pace. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.50% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.37%. The Fed is "walking a tight rope between trying to tell people they are going to fight inflation as their No. The U.S. dollar index briefly rose following the release of Powell's testimony, but was last down slightly. The dollar index fell 0.458%, with the euro up 0.67% to $1.0989.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Powell, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Rick Meckler, Brent, Caroline Valetkevitch, Medha Singh, Lawrence White, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong, Lincoln, Alex Richardson, David Goodman, Richard Chang, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Capitol, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Cherry Lane Investments, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey
"My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," and not cut rates until the latter half of 2024, Bostic said in an interview on Yahoo Finance. "Letting restrictive policy work for a while is prudent because the policy has been truly restrictive for less than a year, and it takes time for monetary policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity. Bostic is the first official to say explicitly that may be too soon. Therefore, the real economic effects of tighter monetary policy are only just beginning to take hold," Bostic said. The risk of waiting is that inflation may resurge, but "that is not my baseline."
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta
Morning Bid: Hawkish Powell keeps markets on defense
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
June 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley, Breaking News Editor for Finance & Markets, Americas. The week's main attraction, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, came and went without rearranging the pieces on the table much. So, that left traders expecting rate hikes to resume at the Fed's July meeting, even as the futures market reflects doubts that the Fed will deliver more increases beyond that. U.S. Treasury yields held to pretty narrow ranges and, with Powell leaning hawkish but not deviating much from last week's FOMC message, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell, for the third straight session. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Alden Bentley, Jerome Powell's, Powell's embargoed, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Kazuo Ueda, Powell's, Jerome Powell, Deepa Babington Organizations: Finance & Markets, . House Financial Services Committee, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Wednesday's U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Treasury, CPI, Thomson Locations: Alden, Americas, U.S, Wednesday's, Japan, Indonesia
Dollar gains on resilient U.S. economy, flight to safety
  + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"If you consider global data of late, it's painting a more resilient picture of the U.S. economy than what's going on in Europe," he said. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 103.91, its highest since March 20. "The U.S. dollar has been rallying more or less for three weeks helped by stronger-than-expected data and rising U.S. interest rates," he said. The Swedish currency hit 11.541 crowns per euro, its weakest against the common currency since March 2009. The dollar strengthened 0.82% against the crown , while the New Zealand dollar slid 2.29% against the U.S. currency to 0.61050.
Persons: Joe Manimbo, Manimbo, Marc Chandler, Chandler, We're, Simon Harvey Organizations: Reserve, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, European Central Bank, New, New Zealand, Bank, England, Bank of England Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Bannockburn, New York
Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn't foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if there's a recession. "If there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be willing to do that." "If there's going to be a bias to action, for me would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut." On inflation, Bostic said he remains optimistic, while Goolsbee said, "Inflation is improving, but it's not improving that rapidly." "There's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target," Bostic said.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) were 0.3% lower on Thursday, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.4%. Data showed that new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March, suggesting that business spending on equipment was likely a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Wells Fargo lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth by 100 basis points to a 0.8% rise. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, dropped to 101.4 on fresh concerns over a U.S. slowdown. U.S. crude futures edged up 0.3% to $74.5 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $78.09 per barrel.
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